Já Sabemosby Presidential runoff · October 25, 2026
With 5% of the vote counted, we already know.Runoff count, live.
Sunday, October 25, from 5 p.m. Brasília time (4 p.m. ET). With 5% of the vote counted, we tell you who won, if the chance of winning passes 99%. If it is too close, we say so.
Starts in
Tested on Brazil's last 5 presidential elections
A live projection on top of the official count by Brazil's electoral court (TSE). In the first round, with half of the vote counted, the projection was within half a point of the final result. The partial count, at that same moment, was still more than 3 points away.
Your town in past elections
The proof: round 1
percentage points vs. the final result; positive = above the resultAt 6:53 p.m., with 52% of the vote counted, the partial official count showed Flávio at 50.07% and Lula at 41.76%. The projection said 47.5% × 44.6%. The final result was 47.03% × 45.16%. Every update of the night is here, with its time, misses included.
Estados
How we know early
Place by place
Ballot boxes don't arrive in order: small towns and some states come first, so the early partial count does not represent the whole country. The projection looks at each municipality, and each district of large cities, separately.
What we already know about each place
Every place already voted in the first round. The ballot boxes coming in show how much the vote moved, and the projection carries that shift into what is still left to count.
Tested
The method was tested on Brazil's last five presidential elections and on the 2026 first-round count, using real votes from every electoral district.
The margin of error
Every projection comes with a range and a chance of winning. We only say "we know" when the chance passes 99%. If it is too close, we say so.